Jury decisions on prior crimes

1. Whether, when a defendant pleads guilty to an indictment and plea agreement that omit the Armed Career Criminal Act’s occasions element, and the district court then imposes an enhanced sentence based on its own finding that the prior offenses were committed on different occasions, the harmlessness of the resulting Erlinger error is measured by asking whether the defendant would have pleaded guilty anyway, as the Fourth Circuit holds; by asking whether a rational jury would necessarily have found the occasions element, as other circuits hold; or by asking whether the error affected the sentence imposed. 2. Whether a plea-agreement provision waiving the right to have “the existence and applicability of any prior convictions” charged in an indictment, submitted to a jury, and proved beyond a reasonable doubt waives the distinct right recognized in Erlinger to have a jury determine whether prior offenses were committed on different occasions—particularly where the same plea agreement fixes the defendant’s total sentencing exposure below the enhanced statutory range.